Wave outlook for 2011.02.25 to 03.06

Strong wave will develop on Friday afternoon, but surface winds will be extremely strong (gusting up to 50 knots).

The best chance for wave this weekend will be a sunrise launch on Saturday or Sunday or a late afternoon launch on Saturday. But even then the low-level structure is weak. See the forecast notes below for additional details.

See also the summary table for a quick glance at the near-term wave outlook for W99.

25-Feb Fri
In the morning hours the flow will be southwesterly, skies mostly overcast with rain showers, but wave will begin building by late morning and the overcast layer will begin breaking up into wave bar. With the projected passage of the cold front around noon, the flow shifting to the NW, and the boundary layer subsidence by mid-afternoon, low entry to wave should be possible at around 3500 ft MSL. Day ending with strong wave and very strong potential for 5000 meter climb towards the end of the day, too late for x-c.

26-Feb Sat
Low levels unfortunately appear to be very weak, otherwise very good atmospheric structure and wind profile in mid and upper levels. High-level wave likely all day. Low probability of low-level wave entry on Saturday but only around sunrise and sunset. Ridge lift unreliable or non-existent. Thermals 3-4kt to 4500 ft MSL but risk of closeout by high cirrus.

27-Feb Sun
Similar to Saturday, good mid and upper level profile but low levels are very weak. Good chance of low-level wave entry and climb, but only around sunrise. Increasing cloudiness and chance of rain as day progresses.

28-Feb Mon
Cold front passage. Rain likely. SW flow.

01-Mar Tue
Post-frontal NW flow, but only moderate to weak wave likely.

02-Mar Wed
Light NW flow, low pressure system likely too far north for strong wave.

03-Mar Thu
Light NW flow, low pressure system likely too far north for strong wave.

04-Mar Fri
SW flow.

05-Mar Sat
Cold front passage? Wave possible.

06-Mar Sun
Wave possible.